As the administration of President Donald Trump implements tariffs and other global trade-related changes, area business owners and experts are watching closely for impacts back home.

This was the first full week of Trump’s 10% additional tariffs on Chinese imports — a centerpiece of the economic message the Republican promoted during the 2024 presidential campaign, which he said would reduce prices and boost U.S. manufacturing while also reducing illegal narcotics traffic. China quickly responded with its own retaliatory tariffs.

In the same week, Trump delayed implementing proposed 25% tariffs on the U.S.’ two other top trade partners — Canada and Mexico — after those nations’ leaders convinced Trump of their border security efforts. And on Friday, Trump announced he would delay levying tariffs on small packages and goods worth less than $800 from China.

In the months since Trump won the 2024 election, local industry leaders and visiting economic experts have said they expect negative impacts to their industries, either from tariffs on imports or retaliatory tariffs from other nations such as counter-tariffs imposed by China.

During the 2025 Driftless Beef Conference, held recently in Dubuque, keynote speaker Derrell Peel — the director of Oklahoma State University’s Department of Agricultural Economics — said he expects burgeoning trade wars to harm the economy generally, at least by causing uncertainty.

“Uncertainty is not good for markets. That, by itself, creates negative impacts,” he said. “The second thing is, markets do what they do well, to find value for everybody involved. … Any time you impose any sort of trade restrictions of any kind, you’re going to disrupt that process.”

The Budget Lab at Yale University estimates that Trump’s tariffs would cost the average American household $1,000 to $1,200 in annual purchasing power.

Long-range studies by the U.S. Federal Reserve project that tariffs would especially increase the costs of goods the U.S. imports more than it produces stateside and/or exports and create a trade deficit.

According to data from the U.S. International Trade Commission, the products with the greatest trade deficits include electrical machinery and their parts, mechanical appliances, automobiles and steel. Those are key goods for industries including manufacturing, construction and energy, which all play substantial roles in the tri-state area’s economy.

Area industries are keeping a close eye on news from Washington, D.C.

Alliant Energy Spokesperson Morgan Hawk said the company is watching announcements from the Trump administration for policies that would impact the company, which has many construction and generation projects planned for the coming years.

Grainwell Puffed Grains, in Dyersville, Iowa, imports many of the ingredients it puffs into breakfast cereals and other products. It also exports products to Canada.

U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, visited the plant Monday and spoke to Ancient Brands Milling CEO Wolfgang Buehler about potential impacts of Trump’s trade policies. After the visit, Buehler told the Telegraph Herald that Grainwell should avoid major impacts from the China trade war, but he is watching closely for any moves — including retaliatory tariffs — involving countries in which his company does business, including Canada.

“We’re getting amaranth from India and quinoa from Bolivia and Peru,” Buehler said. “We’re not importing anything from Mexico, Canada and China at all. So we should be OK for now. We do have some customers that we deliver to in Canada, so we’ll have to see how that works out.”

One local business expecting significant impacts from the China dispute is Kendrick Forest Products in Edgewood, Iowa, which exports many of its highest-dollar logs to the country. Shortly after the 2024 election concluded, owner Kirby Kendrick said he already was bracing for the hurt because his family business felt it during Trump’s first term.

“China is a large consumer for our industry,” he said. “So some (logs) will go to China, some to Europe. Before the conflict in Ukraine, we shipped some to Belarus. … We’ve exported to 20 countries at this point.”

While Trump stuck to targeting the U.S.’ top three trade partners in his first round of tariffs, he said during interviews after a Friday meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that he would announce new tariffs on goods from more countries this coming week.

International Trade Commission data shows the U.S. has a more than $8.8 billion trade deficit for coffee, tea, yerba mate and spices. The U.S. imports almost all of its coffee beans — mostly from Brazil, according to Jumble Coffee Co. co-owner George Nauman. While Trump has not detailed his plans for Brazil, Nauman said he is watching trade news with some uncertainty, especially because the market is already being impacted by global factors driving prices up.

“I have not seen anything drastic so far,” Nauman said, regarding tariff-related price increases. “But there are other forces at play as well — especially since Brazil grows most of the product and they have had weather problems which caused lower harvest. So (beans) are already expensive, especially for Jumble since we roast only fair-trade organic.”

Many companies nationally prepared for economic uncertainty by buying more inventory ahead of Trump’s inauguration, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. But that is not an option for Nauman.

“I have space for 20 to 30, 150-pound bags at a time,” he said. “We roast all day, most days. We do not have the room to stockpile.”