Turbulence
It’s been nearly one week since an assassination attempt on former President Trump took place. Immediately following the attempt betting pool odds jumped in Trump’s favor for winning the 2024 election in what now feels like an almost inevitable outcome as President Biden continues to slip in the polls and the court of public appearance.
Some commodity markets appeared to react to this development. November 2024 Soybean futures were down $.30 per bushel on the week after depreciating $.60 the week before.
The idea that Trump will continue to play hard ball with China with more tariffs lends itself to the idea that China will buy fewer U.S. soybeans as a result. This had already been established as a narrative, but futures markets reacted in a way that there is still some risk premium to lose.
The move lower in prices was extra disappointing for soybean bulls as a flash sale purchase of 510,000 tonnes of soybeans was announced on Thursday for delivery to unknown destinations. This purchase was the largest so far for the 2024-2025 marketing year. Unknown destinations do not have to mean China, but the odds would suggest that it is with that kind of size.
Drill, baby, drill
The other noticeable commodity to make a political move might have been the crude oil market. In former President Trump’s Thursday night speech at the Republican National Convention, he noted that one of his main focuses will be lowering energy prices and that we will “Drill, baby, drill”. Crude oil prices dropped more than $2 per barrel the next day.
The 2024 Democrat National Convention will not take place until Monday-Thursday, Aug. 19-22. Calls for President Biden to step down continue to get closer and closer to coming from inside the house, which if realized, might create a lurch in the market one way or another depending on the substitute chosen.
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