Gold blasts-off on tariff fears
Conservative investors joined funds, central banks, speculators and gold bugs in hunting for a refuge from more chaotic tariff talks and geo-political uncertainties. Stocks, bonds and paper money were shunned midweek while the precious metals and copper competed for the fastest rise in months. Though tariffs, imports, exports, supply and demand for all commodities were topics of analysis by economists and news reporters, the message from the markets was “buy gold,” the oldest investment on our planet. Gold exploded more than $3,017 dollars per ounce for the first time in history; silver was up by $1.50, with platinum and copper also higher.
Ag commodities reveal split personalities
Wheat went up while corn was down with domestic and South American weather and a USDA report cited among the reasons. Soybeans were pulled-down by low bean oil demand. Hogs fell hard midweek but cattle shot higher on the ongoing story that the shortage of market-ready steers could last for another year.
Lumber’s numbers look to build
Lumber futures point to a steady rise in 2025 with growth predicted to move up in the 8-12% range as housing starts look to grow by 11%. Stable lumber prices would be welcome given the volatility of the COVID years when price per thousand board feet moved from $248.20 in 2015 to $1,059.20 in 2021 and back to $648 this week.
Currently, not enough domestic lumber is produced to meet demand. However, a new lumber futures contract will shift from Canada to the U.S. South in an attempt to help stabilize prices and minimize reliance on imports.
One potential stumbling block to rising prices is the threat of tariffs on Canadian lumber, since nearly 30% of the U.S. supply is imported from our northern neighbor. Other variables to watch include housing interest rates and availability of building materials such as steel and aluminum.
Can Ag gecretary walk Trump-farm tightrope?
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins is both a farm advocate and a strong supporter of President Trump’s policies. She has voiced support for immigration policy, tariffs and many Trump/DOGE cuts. At the same time, her job and her farm background require farm support as farmers face several concerns.
Tariffs have cost farmers 10-15% cuts on meat, vegetables, soybeans and wheat. Less than 1% of the farm conservation grants to farmers have been released, just $20 million of the $5.7 billion for 2025. There is a 45-day stay on termination of probationary USDA employees, causing staffing uncertainty. Undocumented immigrants make up 42% of farm labor, and farmers cannot afford replacements if the workers are forced to leave.
This week, farmers are suing the Trump administration over the paused climate, tax and health grants that they were promised and have paid upfront cost on. Rollins’ job could feel like a lot of pushing for American farm help … uphill.
CME midday prices: Price per bushel: July Soybeans, $10.28; July Corn, $4.67; July Wheat, $5.75. April Livestock per 100 pounds: Cattle, $202.40; Hogs, $86.80. Metals per troy ounce: April Gold, $2,994; May Silver, $34.25. May Copper per pound: $4.88. April Crude oil per barrel: $67.05. May Lumber per 1,000 board feet, $661.00.
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